Kevin P. Nguyen

Equity Zone Mortgage-Elk Grove, California

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: National Home Price Growth Slows in May

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S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: National Home Price Growth Slows in May

U.S. home prices rose in May, but at a slower pace. S&P Case-Shiller’s National Home Price index reported year-over-year home price growth of 19.70 percent in May as compared to April’s record year-over-year home price growth pace of 20.60 percent. Tampa, Florida led the 20-City Index with year-over-year home price growth of 36.1 percent; Miami, Florida followed with year-over-year home price growth of 34.0  percent. Dallas, Texas reported year-over-year home price growth of 30.8 percent.

Minneapolis, Minnesota, Chicago, Illinois, and Washington, D.C. had the lowest rates of home price growth, but no cities in the 20-City Home Price Index reported declines in home prices. Economists said that slowing growth in home prices could signal that home prices have peaked after years of rapid appreciation.

Affordability, Rising Mortgage Rates Impact Home Price Growth

Rapid home price growth is self-limiting in terms of affordability and the ability of home buyers to qualify for mortgages needed to complete their purchases. Rising mortgage rates also impact affordability as higher mortgage rates reduce funds available for purchasing homes. Current rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.54 percent last week as compared to 2.78 percent approximately one year ago.

Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow-Jones Indices, said that deceleration in home price growth was already occurring and he cautioned that a more challenging environment “may not support extraordinary home price growth much longer.” Analysts said that high mortgage rates and rising home prices would ease demand for homes and would slow rapid home price growth in the coming months, but they did not expect significant reductions in home prices to occur immediately.

The Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate range by 0.75 percent on July 27 and is expected to continue raising its rate range throughout 2022 in its efforts to ease inflation. As interest rates rise for credit cards, home loans, and personal loans increase, consumer demand is expected to ease and calm rapid inflation.

FHFA Home Prices Rise in May

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that home prices for properties owned or financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rose by 1.4 percent month-to-month and 18.3 percent year-over-year in May. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s loan limits impact prices for homes owned or financed by the two government-sponsored enterprises.

Will Doerner, Ph.D. and supervisory economist at Freddie Mac, said: “House prices continued to rise in May but at a slower pace. Since peaking in February, price appreciation has moderated slightly. Price growth remains above historical levels and was supported by the low inventory of properties for sale.” Signs of slowing economic growth, rising mortgage rates, and fears of recession also sidelined would-be home buyers.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: National Home Price Growth Slows in May

by

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: National Home Price Growth Slows in May

U.S. home prices rose in May, but at a slower pace. S&P Case-Shiller’s National Home Price index reported year-over-year home price growth of 19.70 percent in May as compared to April’s record year-over-year home price growth pace of 20.60 percent. Tampa, Florida led the 20-City Index with year-over-year home price growth of 36.1 percent; Miami, Florida followed with year-over-year home price growth of 34.0  percent. Dallas, Texas reported year-over-year home price growth of 30.8 percent.

Minneapolis, Minnesota, Chicago, Illinois, and Washington, D.C. had the lowest rates of home price growth, but no cities in the 20-City Home Price Index reported declines in home prices. Economists said that slowing growth in home prices could signal that home prices have peaked after years of rapid appreciation.

Affordability, Rising Mortgage Rates Impact Home Price Growth

Rapid home price growth is self-limiting in terms of affordability and the ability of home buyers to qualify for mortgages needed to complete their purchases. Rising mortgage rates also impact affordability as higher mortgage rates reduce funds available for purchasing homes. Current rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.54 percent last week as compared to 2.78 percent approximately one year ago.

Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow-Jones Indices, said that deceleration in home price growth was already occurring and he cautioned that a more challenging environment “may not support extraordinary home price growth much longer.” Analysts said that high mortgage rates and rising home prices would ease demand for homes and would slow rapid home price growth in the coming months, but they did not expect significant reductions in home prices to occur immediately.

The Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate range by 0.75 percent on July 27 and is expected to continue raising its rate range throughout 2022 in its efforts to ease inflation. As interest rates rise for credit cards, home loans, and personal loans increase, consumer demand is expected to ease and calm rapid inflation.

FHFA Home Prices Rise in May

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that home prices for properties owned or financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rose by 1.4 percent month-to-month and 18.3 percent year-over-year in May. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s loan limits impact prices for homes owned or financed by the two government-sponsored enterprises.

Will Doerner, Ph.D. and supervisory economist at Freddie Mac, said: “House prices continued to rise in May but at a slower pace. Since peaking in February, price appreciation has moderated slightly. Price growth remains above historical levels and was supported by the low inventory of properties for sale.” Signs of slowing economic growth, rising mortgage rates, and fears of recession also sidelined would-be home buyers.

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: National Home Price Growth Slows in May

by

S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices: National Home Price Growth Slows in May

U.S. home prices rose in May, but at a slower pace. S&P Case-Shiller’s National Home Price index reported year-over-year home price growth of 19.70 percent in May as compared to April’s record year-over-year home price growth pace of 20.60 percent. Tampa, Florida led the 20-City Index with year-over-year home price growth of 36.1 percent; Miami, Florida followed with year-over-year home price growth of 34.0  percent. Dallas, Texas reported year-over-year home price growth of 30.8 percent.

Minneapolis, Minnesota, Chicago, Illinois, and Washington, D.C. had the lowest rates of home price growth, but no cities in the 20-City Home Price Index reported declines in home prices. Economists said that slowing growth in home prices could signal that home prices have peaked after years of rapid appreciation.

Affordability, Rising Mortgage Rates Impact Home Price Growth

Rapid home price growth is self-limiting in terms of affordability and the ability of home buyers to qualify for mortgages needed to complete their purchases. Rising mortgage rates also impact affordability as higher mortgage rates reduce funds available for purchasing homes. Current rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.54 percent last week as compared to 2.78 percent approximately one year ago.

Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow-Jones Indices, said that deceleration in home price growth was already occurring and he cautioned that a more challenging environment “may not support extraordinary home price growth much longer.” Analysts said that high mortgage rates and rising home prices would ease demand for homes and would slow rapid home price growth in the coming months, but they did not expect significant reductions in home prices to occur immediately.

The Federal Reserve raised its key interest rate range by 0.75 percent on July 27 and is expected to continue raising its rate range throughout 2022 in its efforts to ease inflation. As interest rates rise for credit cards, home loans, and personal loans increase, consumer demand is expected to ease and calm rapid inflation.

FHFA Home Prices Rise in May

The Federal Housing Finance Agency reported that home prices for properties owned or financed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac rose by 1.4 percent month-to-month and 18.3 percent year-over-year in May. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac’s loan limits impact prices for homes owned or financed by the two government-sponsored enterprises.

Will Doerner, Ph.D. and supervisory economist at Freddie Mac, said: “House prices continued to rise in May but at a slower pace. Since peaking in February, price appreciation has moderated slightly. Price growth remains above historical levels and was supported by the low inventory of properties for sale.” Signs of slowing economic growth, rising mortgage rates, and fears of recession also sidelined would-be home buyers.

NAHB: Home Builder Confidence Drops in January

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Homebuilder confidence in housing market conditions dipped two points in January; ongoing challenges including labor shortages and materials costs were cited by the National Association of Home Builders, which provides monthly readings on home builder sentiment. Three component readings of the Housing Market Index declined by one point each. Readings for current sales conditions, housing market conditions for the next six months and for buyer traffic within new single-family housing developments were 79, 78 and 54 respectively.

Readings over 50 indicate positive builder sentiment. The reading for buyer traffic seldom exceeds 50. Current readings support continued builder confidence in current and future housing market conditions. NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said housing demand should continue to grow in 2018 based on the gauge of future market conditions remaining in the 70s range. Real estate pros have repeatedly cited slim inventories of homes for sale as driving rapidly rising home prices.

NAHB estimated 1.125 million housing starts for 2018, which was 2.70 percent higher than for2017. The Commerce Department released its annual rate of housing starts in December at 1.192 million starts; Building permits were issued at the annual rate of 1.302 million permits issued in December, based on November’s annualized reading of 1.303 million permits issued.

Regional Builder Confidence Readings Rise

Regional readings for builder confidence were higher in all four regions tracked by NAHB. Calculated on a three-month rolling average, the Northeast gained five points for an index reading of 59; The Midwest posted a one-point gain for a January reading of 70. The South posted a one-point gain for an index reading of 73 and the West reported a two-point gain for a reading of 81.

Analysts said throughout 2017 that building more homes would be the only way to solve the housing shortage and resulting challenges including rapidly rising home prices that eliminate first-time and moderate-income home buyers out of affordable home prices and home financing options.  

Case-Shiller: Home Prices Rise in October

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According to Case-Shiller national and 20-city home price indices for October, home prices continued to rise.  National home prices rose 0.70 percent for the three months ending in October. Year-over-year, national home prices increased by 6.20 percent. The 20-City Home Price Index also rose by 0.70 percent in October and reported a year-over-year increase of 6.40 percent.

The top three metro areas in the 20-City Index were Seattle, Washington with a year-over-year increase of 6.40 percent; Las Vegas Nevada followed with year-over-year home price growth of 10.20 percent. San Diego, California had the third highest home price growth rate at 8.10 percent year-over-year.

The year-over-year percentage increase was 1.30 percent below the all-time high reading for the 20-City Index.

Home Price Growth, Sales Could Face Headwinds in 2018

David M. Blitzer, CEO of the S&P Indices Committee, said that 2018 may bring challenges to home price growth. Mr. Blitzer said that while strong labor markets, economic growth, and low mortgage rates were major factors driving home price growth, higher mortgage rates are expected next year. Rising rates would make buying a home less affordable for some. Home price growth continued to outstrip inflation and income growth.

Mr. Blitzer cited an Urban Institute report that indicated that high-priced metro areas may compel would-be home buyers to consider renting. High-demand metro areas are subject to high rates of buyer competition and bidding wars can drive affordable home prices beyond the reach of first-time and moderate-income buyers.  Significant numbers of buyers turning to rentals could drop the demand for homes and possible ease the rate of home price growth.

Analysts expected home prices to continue increasing due to low supplies and high demand. Millennials are entering their home-buying years and relatively low mortgage rates have supported affordability, but higher mortgage rates and continued competition from investors and cash buyers could stifle demand for homes in the new year.

NAHB: Builder Confidence Outstrips Pre-Bubble Highs

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Home builders surveyed by the National Association of Home Builders expressed their highest level of confidence in housing markets since 1999. The index reading for housing market conditions in December hit 74, which exceeded November’s reading of 70. Analysts expected a flat reading of 70 for December. Readings over 50 indicate improvement in housing market conditions.

The three component readings used to comprise the Housing Market Index also rose in December. Builder confidence in current market conditions rose four points for a reading of 81; builder confidence in housing market conditions over the next six months rose three points to 79. Most surprising was the jump in builder confidence in buyer traffic levels in new housing developments. Traditionally, this reading rarely exceeded 50, but in November, it achieved the benchmark reading. December’s reading for buyer traffic gained eight points to 58. December’s reading for builder confidence in buyer traffic reached its highest level since 1999.

Home Builder Confidence Reflects Strong Economic Conditions

Strength in jobs markets and overall economic conditions drove builder confidence; home builders also cited potential tax breaks associated with pending tax legislation. Tariffs on Canadian lumber were cited as an obstacle to builder profits and increased prices.

High demand for homes caused by slim supplies of homes for sale continues to boost home prices. Real estate pros have said that increasing construction of single-family homes is the only way to correct the current imbalance between rapidly increasing home prices and challenges for first-time and moderate-income home buyers who cannot compete with cash buyers or afford rapidly rising home prices.

Builder Confidence Expands in All Regions

Builder confidence also rose according to the three-month rolling average for builder confidence in the four regions tracked by NAHB. The Northeastern region reported a one-point increase for a regional reading of 54.  Home builder confidence gained six points in the Midwestern region for a reading of 69. Home builders in the South reported a confidence reading of 72, which was three points higher than in November. Builders in the Western region reported a two-point gain in confidence with a reading of 79 in December.